Predictions are locked before kickoff and never edited. This page grades every market against real results.
| Market | Graded | Stated chance | Actual hit rate | Actual − stated | Return per 100 staked* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win | 40 | 46.1% | 57.5% | +11.4 pts | +20.6 |
| Draw | 40 | 23.3% | 25% | +1.7 pts | +14.7 |
| Away win | 40 | 30.6% | 17.5% | −13.1 pts | −51.0 |
| Home or draw (1X) | 40 | 69.4% | 82.5% | +13.1 pts | +23.4 |
| Away or draw (X2) | 40 | 53.9% | 42.5% | −11.4 pts | −22.7 |
| Either team wins (12) | 40 | 76.7% | 75% | −1.7 pts | −2.1 |
| Both teams to score (GG) | 40 | 53.1% | 67.5% | +14.4 pts | +28.8 |
| Not both teams to score (NG) | 40 | 46.9% | 32.5% | −14.4 pts | −28.4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 40 | 76.7% | 85% | +8.3 pts | +11.6 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 40 | 23.3% | 15% | −8.3 pts | −31.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40 | 53.5% | 72.5% | +19.0 pts | +37.3 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40 | 46.5% | 27.5% | −19.0 pts | −42.1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40 | 32% | 40% | +8.0 pts | +24.2 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 40 | 68% | 60% | −8.0 pts | −14.1 |
| Fair odds | Graded | Stated chance | Actual hit rate | Actual − stated | Return per 100 staked* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 | 110 | 78.8% | 82.7% | +3.9 pts | +5.3 |
| 1.40 to 1.79 | 125 | 63% | 65.6% | +2.6 pts | +4.2 |
| 1.80 to 2.29 | 94 | 49.7% | 48.9% | −0.8 pts | −1.0 |
| 2.30 to 3.19 | 104 | 38% | 35.6% | −2.4 pts | −6.9 |
| 3.20 and above | 127 | 22.3% | 18.9% | −3.4 pts | −12.3 |
How to read this. "Stated chance" is what the model said before kickoff; "Actual hit rate" is how often that market really happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close together, and small samples are noisy, so judge it over hundreds of picks.
* Return per 100 staked assumes every pick was bet at the model's own fair odds (100 ÷ stated chance), before any bookmaker margin. Real bookmaker odds are lower, so real returns would be lower than shown. A result near zero means the model is honest about its own odds, not that it beats the bookmakers.
